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The Weather Network – The Great Lakes are at record warmth. Here’s what that means for snow squalls

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Monday, November 8th 2021, 5:07 am – Cold air and relatively warmer lake waters are a number one setup for lake-effect snow squalls. That is what forecasters rely on throughout the coming weeks.

Drivers in southwestern Ontario’s typical snow belts had been plunged into an early burst of winter-like weather last week, courtesy of lake-effect snow squalls.

PHOTOS: Days of lake-effect snow bring wintry feel to Ontario

Such squalls aren’t extraordinary throughout the fall and early iciness months, they usually rely on only some parts.

First: it is helping if the lakes in question are however in large part unfrozen. That problems on account of the lakes lose their warmth faster than the land, so when cold air moves in, it encounters lake waters markedly warmer than the air.

So when cold winds blow over the however relatively warmth lakes, the moisture precipitates as snow, and is blown inland through those same winds. Depending at the direction, the extra those winds must adventure over the lake ground, the additional selection it has for that moisture to precipitate, and the more potent the eventual squalls (a process meteorologists identify “fetch”).

As we mentioned, the genesis of all this is still-warm, unfrozen lake water. And the Great Lakes have this in abundance this 12 months. In truth, the lakes are at record-warm levels.

Why is this? This week’s cold snap then again, there hasn’t in truth been an extended period of cold local weather all the way through Ontario, with long stretches of relatively subtle in one day lows.

There’s moreover been above-average cloud cover, which fits to lure heat throughout the house – all of which limits the cooling of lake waters which, consider, already retain their heat for longer than the land.

So, the lakes are warmth, and it is going to be a very good long while previous than they cool down and freeze, within the tournament that they freeze the least bit. For many who don’t make a selection their commutes with a hearty dose of snow, that bodes unwell for the impending weeks.

Forecasters say the past due November pattern will mark the coming of Arctic air, funnelled downward into Ontario through a developing ridge of over the top tension all the way through the west.

Cold air over the warmer Great Lakes makes for a number one lake-effect snow setup – then again that doesn’t necessarily guarantee epic snow amounts for specific spaces.

While the pattern and lake temperatures undoubtedly build up the opportunity of lake-effect snow, there are other parts to take into accounts, leader among them wind direction.

To actually max out that squall possible, we’d like a really useful wind (out of the northwest, for instance), blowing for a very good great distance all the way through the lake to grasp onto additional moisture (the “fetch” we mentioned up above).

2d, for in truth heavy local amounts, the following bands of snow would need to lock in position, directing the snow over localized spaces for prolonged periods of time. Quite a lot of meandering, and while additional people would possibly get those flakes, overall local amounts shall be lessened. Spaces got rid of from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, similar to the Higher Toronto House, are not possible to get any epic snow blasts from this setup.

One different upside: Those warmth lakes moreover serve a 2nd purpose: they are going to act as a moderating drive at the similar Arctic air that shall be boosting lake-effect snow risk, taking the edge off the nippiness. In truth, the temperature setup may also be such that it will likely be lake-effect showers that manifest as we with regards to the end of November.

Nevertheless, this whole setup is something to take into accounts as Ontarians mull when to finally get their iciness tires on.

With files from meteorologist Jessie Uppal.

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